A forecast of "70% chance of rain" expresses what?
AnswerA probability
It gives the likelihood of measurable rain.
Science · Facts & stats
Prediction facts & stats
7 fact-checked facts about predictions, forecasting and probability, each with the reason behind it. 5 more are in today's round and join this page after it closes.
The basics
On what date is Groundhog Day celebrated in the US?
AnswerFebruary 2
Punxsutawney Phil makes his forecast on February 2.
Going deeper
Which researcher is known for studying "superforecasters"?
AnswerPhilip Tetlock
Tetlock led the Good Judgment Project.
Nostradamus, famous for prophecies, came from which country?
AnswerFrance
He published Les Prophéties in 16th-century France.
Which scientist's chaos research gave us the "butterfly effect"?
AnswerEdward Lorenz
Lorenz showed small changes can alter weather forecasts.
Expert level
What does the Brier score measure?
AnswerAccuracy of probability forecasts
Lower Brier scores mean better-calibrated forecasts.
In which year did Halley's Comet return as predicted?
Answer1758
It was spotted on Christmas night 1758, after Halley's death.
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